Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 2.527343 2.954931 3.429388 3.994421 4.648564 5.381630 6.265083
2025-12-14 1.801401 2.353838 3.033895 3.930573 5.079746 6.501020 8.390272
2025-12-21 1.379879 1.976361 2.776026 3.921814 5.516362 7.651281 10.720629
2025-12-28 1.195888 1.849437 2.790107 4.234040 6.384564 9.457019 14.165615
2026-01-04 1.004482 1.662469 2.670686 4.314693 6.912533 10.839307 17.198962
2026-01-11 0.859004 1.511020 2.567658 4.386019 7.414437 12.225926 20.407004
2026-01-18 0.735435 1.368269 2.447918 4.399722 7.809748 13.477989 23.549349
2026-01-25 0.629850 1.234869 2.317710 4.366964 8.109376 14.594805 26.593882
2026-02-01 0.514118 1.060495 2.084734 4.110526 7.970869 14.932898 28.321013
2026-02-08 0.434729 0.940513 1.930656 3.971327 8.016954 15.587984 30.676643
2026-02-15 0.380708 0.861351 1.841267 3.940069 8.257125 16.618343 33.842470
2026-02-22 0.352886 0.832087 1.846287 4.096665 8.884402 18.452702 38.767065
2026-03-01 0.309331 0.762532 1.760971 4.061783 9.136364 19.622212 42.609449
2026-03-08 0.271188 0.698615 1.678385 4.022016 9.377447 20.811979 46.677447
2026-03-15 0.241124 0.648196 1.617707 4.021566 9.704532 22.224550 51.406244
2026-03-22 0.234552 0.655051 1.691386 4.344523 10.809291 25.453077 60.501881
2026-03-29 0.214679 0.623552 1.667240 4.428267 11.366927 27.535775 67.292823
2026-04-05 0.196569 0.593207 1.640811 4.501766 11.909618 29.650372 74.421270
2026-04-12 0.177846 0.557402 1.594243 4.515941 12.306524 31.470924 81.080936
2026-04-19 0.159415 0.518704 1.533400 4.482392 12.576118 33.016998 87.266683
2026-04-26 0.134864 0.456423 1.396787 4.219437 12.203234 32.926066 89.366378
2026-05-03 0.117737 0.413660 1.308188 4.076689 12.133447 33.592659 93.480820
2026-05-10 0.106146 0.386385 1.260415 4.044635 12.366966 35.077213 99.920985